青春派
Does China’s weak domestic demand really lead to excess capacity?: People's Daily_我的网站
A |
快科技8月22日消息，据报道，随着AI从模型开发转向大规模部署，推理算力需求正以前所未有的速度膨胀。
But what are the facts on the ground?
China's Ministry of Commerce recently released a document titled China's Position on the So-Called Excess Capacity Issue. Reviewing the evolution of the global capacity landscape from a historical perspective, it offers an objective analysis of how industrial subsidies, trade surpluses, economic imbalances and market competition relate to "overcapacity," sets out China's policy practices and the direction of its efforts, and puts forward China's ideas and proposals - a forceful response to the "China overcapacity" narrative.
Plainly, the argument that "China's inadequate domestic demand gives rise to excess capacity" rests on a logical sleight of hand - it takes a localized phenomenon at the micro level of the market and applies it wholesale to the structure of the macroeconomy, a picture far removed from reality.
China is not only a major manufacturing power but also a major consuming power. Domestic demand has long been the main engine of the Chinese economy.
To see through the logical fallacy of the "overcapacity" narrative, one must first be clear about where the Chinese economy actually sits in the global landscape.
In the course of economic globalization, China has actively integrated itself into the international division of industrial labor and become the "world's factory" in the truest sense. Chinese manufacturing has enriched the global supply of goods, lowered living costs for consumers in countries around the world, and played an important part in easing global inflationary pressure. But to define China simply as a "producer" on that basis, and from there to conclude that it suffers from "inadequate domestic demand and overcapacity," is a proposition that does not hold water.
From 2013 to 2024, domestic demand contributed an average of 93 percent to China's economic growth, with consumption and investment accounting for an average of 55 percent and 38 percent respectively. China's total retail sales of consumer goods rose from 23.8 trillion yuan ($3.53 trillion) in 2013 to 50.1 trillion yuan in 2025, doubling in size.
Measured at the World Bank's purchasing power parity rates, China's total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 were 1.7 times those of the US, making the country the world's largest market for consumer goods in all but name. China today ranks first globally in the physical volume of goods consumed, and its per capita annual consumption of some industrial products already approaches the levels seen in developed economies.
China keeps expanding its domestic demand and is working toward a higher-level balance between supply and demand.
Growth in China's total retail sales of consumer goods has slowed somewhat in recent years, and some have taken this as proof of weak domestic demand. That reading is neither objective nor complete.
A strong domestic market provides strategic support for Chinese modernization. The outline of China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period devotes a dedicated part to building such a market, stressing the need to adhere to the strategic focus of expanding domestic demand, to expand effective investment, to further implement special actions to boost consumption, to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, to unleashing the potential of service consumption, to strengthening the foundation of residents' consumption and to continuously improve the consumption environment - using new demand to guide new supply, and using new supply to create new demand, so as to promote a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment, and between supply and demand, achieve a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand.
The slowdown in retail sales growth is consistent with China's shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and it also reflects the upgrading of the country's consumption structure. China's consumer market is moving faster from one dominated by goods toward one in which goods and services carry equal weight. Spending on services is growing rapidly and is expected to account for more than half of the total by 2030.
China's super-sized market is not only the bedrock of its own development but also a broad platform on which countries around the world can share in the dividends of that growth.
China has ranked as the world's second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years and is a major export destination for nearly 80 countries and regions. It has granted zero-tariff treatment to 63 countries and regions, becoming the first major economy in the world to extend full zero-tariff coverage to every African country and every least developed country that has diplomatic relations with it. It is also the only country to host an international import expo, having staged eight editions of the China International Import Expo with cumulative intended deals worth more than $580 billion. Over the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25) period, China's cumulative imports topped 90 trillion yuan. These facts and figures show clearly that China is not just the "world's factory" but, still more, the "world's market."
Looking ahead, China's middle-income group is set to exceed 800 million people within little more than a decade, and per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of a moderately developed country. With vast room for consumption and ample potential and vitality, domestic demand will remain the main engine of China's economic development and will keep injecting strong momentum into world economic growth.
This was compiled and translated by the Global Times English edition based on an article published in the "Chisu Jinsheng" economic commentary column of the People's Daily on August 6, 2026.
。然而，国产AI芯片在处理编码等复杂推理任务时仍需要提高，导致国产AI企业不得不在有限的英伟达芯片供应中挤牙膏式地分配算力。趋境科技副总裁关嘉伟近日向媒体透露，推理市场已出现明显的两极分化。高质量Token的需求远大于供给，高端任务对性能的要求极为严苛，国产处理器目前还无法稳定满足。尤其是在编码等场景中，用户愿意为此支付溢价，而这些高价值任务目前仍高度依赖英伟达的芯片。正是这种供需失衡，直接推高了英伟达芯片的租赁价格。趋境科技数据显示，英伟达H200芯片的月租赁价格已从2025年第三季度末的5万至8万元人民币，飙升至今年早些时候的10万元以上。Token用量的爆炸式增长是需求端的直接推手。最新统计数据显示，我国日均词元调用量在2026年6月已激增至近175万亿，较2024年初增长超千倍。面对严峻的供应压力，中国AI企业被迫寻求技术突破。月之暗面设计了一套面向异构推理场景的数据传输库，可实现英伟达H20与华为昇腾910B芯片之间的高效数据交换。
B |
But what are the facts on the ground?
China's Ministry of Commerce recently released a document titled China's Position on the So-Called Excess Capacity Issue. Reviewing the evolution of the global capacity landscape from a historical perspective, it offers an objective analysis of how industrial subsidies, trade surpluses, economic imbalances and market competition relate to "overcapacity," sets out China's policy practices and the direction of its efforts, and puts forward China's ideas and proposals - a forceful response to the "China overcapacity" narrative.
Plainly, the argument that "China's inadequate domestic demand gives rise to excess capacity" rests on a logical sleight of hand - it takes a localized phenomenon at the micro level of the market and applies it wholesale to the structure of the macroeconomy, a picture far removed from reality.
China is not only a major manufacturing power but also a major consuming power. Domestic demand has long been the main engine of the Chinese economy.
To see through the logical fallacy of the "overcapacity" narrative, one must first be clear about where the Chinese economy actually sits in the global landscape.
In the course of economic globalization, China has actively integrated itself into the international division of industrial labor and become the "world's factory" in the truest sense. Chinese manufacturing has enriched the global supply of goods, lowered living costs for consumers in countries around the world, and played an important part in easing global inflationary pressure. But to define China simply as a "producer" on that basis, and from there to conclude that it suffers from "inadequate domestic demand and overcapacity," is a proposition that does not hold water.
From 2013 to 2024, domestic demand contributed an average of 93 percent to China's economic growth, with consumption and investment accounting for an average of 55 percent and 38 percent respectively. China's total retail sales of consumer goods rose from 23.8 trillion yuan ($3.53 trillion) in 2013 to 50.1 trillion yuan in 2025, doubling in size.
Measured at the World Bank's purchasing power parity rates, China's total retail sales of consumer goods in 2025 were 1.7 times those of the US, making the country the world's largest market for consumer goods in all but name. China today ranks first globally in the physical volume of goods consumed, and its per capita annual consumption of some industrial products already approaches the levels seen in developed economies.
China keeps expanding its domestic demand and is working toward a higher-level balance between supply and demand.
Growth in China's total retail sales of consumer goods has slowed somewhat in recent years, and some have taken this as proof of weak domestic demand. That reading is neither objective nor complete.
A strong domestic market provides strategic support for Chinese modernization. The outline of China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-30) period devotes a dedicated part to building such a market, stressing the need to adhere to the strategic focus of expanding domestic demand, to expand effective investment, to further implement special actions to boost consumption, to promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption, to unleashing the potential of service consumption, to strengthening the foundation of residents' consumption and to continuously improve the consumption environment - using new demand to guide new supply, and using new supply to create new demand, so as to promote a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment, and between supply and demand, achieve a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand.
The slowdown in retail sales growth is consistent with China's shift from high-speed growth to high-quality development, and it also reflects the upgrading of the country's consumption structure. China's consumer market is moving faster from one dominated by goods toward one in which goods and services carry equal weight. Spending on services is growing rapidly and is expected to account for more than half of the total by 2030.
China's super-sized market is not only the bedrock of its own development but also a broad platform on which countries around the world can share in the dividends of that growth.
China has ranked as the world's second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years and is a major export destination for nearly 80 countries and regions. It has granted zero-tariff treatment to 63 countries and regions, becoming the first major economy in the world to extend full zero-tariff coverage to every African country and every least developed country that has diplomatic relations with it. It is also the only country to host an international import expo, having staged eight editions of the China International Import Expo with cumulative intended deals worth more than $580 billion. Over the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25) period, China's cumulative imports topped 90 trillion yuan. These facts and figures show clearly that China is not just the "world's factory" but, still more, the "world's market."
Looking ahead, China's middle-income group is set to exceed 800 million people within little more than a decade, and per capita GDP is expected to reach the level of a moderately developed country. With vast room for consumption and ample potential and vitality, domestic demand will remain the main engine of China's economic development and will keep injecting strong momentum into world economic growth.
This was compiled and translated by the Global Times English edition based on an article published in the "Chisu Jinsheng" economic commentary column of the People's Daily on August 6, 2026.
。然而，国产AI芯片在处理编码等复杂推理任务时仍需要提高，导致国产AI企业不得不在有限的英伟达芯片供应中挤牙膏式地分配算力。趋境科技副总裁关嘉伟近日向媒体透露，推理市场已出现明显的两极分化。高质量Token的需求远大于供给，高端任务对性能的要求极为严苛，国产处理器目前还无法稳定满足。尤其是在编码等场景中，用户愿意为此支付溢价，而这些高价值任务目前仍高度依赖英伟达的芯片。正是这种供需失衡，直接推高了英伟达芯片的租赁价格。趋境科技数据显示，英伟达H200芯片的月租赁价格已从2025年第三季度末的5万至8万元人民币，飙升至今年早些时候的10万元以上。Token用量的爆炸式增长是需求端的直接推手。最新统计数据显示，我国日均词元调用量在2026年6月已激增至近175万亿，较2024年初增长超千倍。面对严峻的供应压力，中国AI企业被迫寻求技术突破。月之暗面设计了一套面向异构推理场景的数据传输库，可实现英伟达H20与华为昇腾910B芯片之间的高效数据交换。
C | 趋境科技则采用了“异构P/D分离”技术，让昇腾910B处理请求的初始阶段，英伟达H20负责最终的响应生成。
D | 趋境科技的推理引擎KTransformers已成功在单张RTX 4090上运行DeepSeek完整版模型，成本降低10至20倍。
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